UKRAINE CRISIS BRIEFING

Download GlobalData’s Ukraine Crisis Executive Briefing report

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 7 July

Since Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, data from the United Nations Refugee Agency indicates that around eight million people have crossed the Ukrainian border as of 28 June

GlobalData forecasts that the world economy will grow at a slower pace of 3.3% in 2022, following a 5.9% growth in 2021. The global inflation rate is projected to rise to 7% in 2022 from 3.5% in the previous year due to supply chain disruption

- SECTOR IMPACT: TRAVEL AND TOURISM -

Latest update: 8 June

Revenue impact

With no end to the conflict in sight, fuel prices will continue to surge for
airlines. This will negatively impact their bottom lines unless they pass the full additional cost on to the traveller, which could reduce demand in an industry where consumers can easily find substitute services.

For example, American Airlines is forecasting fuel costs to increase between $3.92 to $3.97 per gallon, increasing $0.33 per gallon from the previous estimate of $3.59 to $3.64. Increasing fuel costs means that airlines cannot optimise performance and their post-Covid-19 recovery timelines will be extended as a result.

According to GlobalData, in 2021, combined outbound tourist expenditure from Russia and Ukraine accounted for 3.5% of total global outbound tourist expenditure.

A significantly reduced number of travellers from both countries will be taking trips internationally in 2022, which will contribute to an uneven tourism recovery from the pandemic.

Under mounting pressure from Western sanctions and airspace bans,
Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship airline, has seen its revenue cut dramatically. It is now planning to raise up to $3bn in an emergency share issue.

Travel enters a new era

Low tourist demand means many cars rental companies have been forced to sell their fleets in order to stay afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Markets in which airport pickup is the largest channel, such as the US, have particularly suffered, but the effect has been felt all over the world.

But as demand picks up, with more people traveling and supply still down, major price hikes are likely to be in store for anyone who wants to rent a car.

Key Travel And Tourism developments

According to GlobalData, in 2021, combined outbound tourist expenditure from Russia and Ukraine accounted for 3.5% of total global outbound tourist expenditure.

With the conflict and sanctions impacting both economies, a significantly reduced number of travellers from both countries will be taking trips internationally in 2022, which will contribute to an uneven tourism recovery from the pandemic.

The conflict continues to exacerbate operational issues that are hampering many major airlines across Europe, leading to bottlenecks as no-fly zones are avoided.

This can add hours to flights as carriers avoid Russian and Ukrainian airspace.

Additionally, more time spent flying increases fuel usage, and with significantly higher fuel costs as a by-product of the ongoing crisis, this adds to operational costs for airlines.

SANCTIONS

Egypt is now looking to capitalise on a lack of outbound options for Russian travellers, created by sanctions. Conversations between Egypt and Russia to apply the Russian payment system MIR in Egyptian resorts have occurred.

In previous years, tourists from Russia and Ukraine have accounted for up to 40% of beach holidaymakers in Egypt, according to the Ministry of Tourism and the Egyptian Chamber of Tourist Establishments.

However, inbound flows from these two countries have been heavily impacted by the conflict, which has had a knock-on impact on Egypt’s tourism industry. According to Russian tour agency Travelata, Egypt was in the top five tourist destinations for Russian tourists for the Summer of 2022. Egypt is now looking to capitalise on this pent-up demand by enhancing accessibility for Russian travellers.

08/12/2022 15:05:04